It is interesting that they chose to revise their forecasts in a speech in between MPR release dates, Mr. Ragan said. A perfectly workable alternative would have been to talk with some precision about the higher expected growth in Q2 and therefore the lower-than-expected bounce back in Q3. And that kind of talk would have conditioned the markets well for arrival of the Q3 MPR [on Oct. 23]. I do consider this [speech] unusual and a welcome new chapter in the banks communication Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said the news wasnt really unexpected. The last rate announcement changed the line about a narrowing of the output gap to have it start in 2014 . The only surprise was that [Mr.] Poloz didnt mention such details in his [Sept. 18] speech. Mr. Macklems speech also came on the same day the U.S. went into shutdown mode after Democrats and Republicans could not break their spending impasse. Things could very likely change before the Oct. 23 bank report, given the next U.S. deadline this one for agreeing to a far more critical new debt ceiling is set for Oct. 17. And thats all an argument for them not doing what they did, Mr.
Congress also faces the $16.7 trillion statutory debt ceiling, which the Treasury has said will be reached Oct. 17. The shutdown is bad for growth in Canada, and as we get closer to the debt-ceiling deadline there is more concern manifesting, which is weighing on the U.S. dollar relative to the loonie, Shaun Osborne , chief currency strategist at Toronto-Dominion Banks TD Securities unit in Toronto, said by phone. We will probably continue to chop around in a range until this monumental uncertainty is cleared up. Its all a question of waiting for Washington at this point. Canadas dollar touched a four-day high on Sept. 30, C$1.0275, after a report showed gross domestic product increased at the fastest pace in two years in July, with output rising 0.6 percent to an annualized C$1.58 trillion. Ivey Index Canadian purchasing managers increased spending in September by less than economists forecast, according to a gauge released yesterday by Western Universitys business school. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.9 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, following an August reading of 51.0. Readings of more than 50 indicate purchasing by governments and companies increased. A Bloomberg survey forecast 53.6. Employers added 10,000 jobs in September, compared with 59,200 the previous month, economists in another Bloomberg survey projected before Statistics Canada reports the data on Oct.
Canada’s voluntary census is worthless. Here’s why
Peterborough, at 36 per cent, was the highest for a metropolitan area. People with higher levels of education, higher-status jobs, higher (but not the highest) incomes and older people had higher response rates. Single parents and one-person households as well as renters had lower response rates. So did those living in the richest and poorest census tracts. These missing responses explain why the Prime Ministers NHS paints a rosy picture of a country with a growing middle-income group and fewer low-income areas. The fact is, fewer low-income people filled in the voluntary long form. When we compare the NHS to the CRA results for all census tracts in eight of the largest metropolitan areas, 6.3 per cent of the census tracts (about 200) strangely show up in the NHS as middle-income, tracts that were once either high-income or low-income. The Gini coefficient of neighbourhood income inequality for Canadas major metropolitan areas in the 2011 CRA and the 2006 Census are about the same, but not in the 2011 NHS. Inequality can increase or decrease in measurable ways over five years, but rarely by the amount claimed in the NHS. In short, all the good news from the NHS is nonsense. The sad thing is that the news is now official. It comes from official government of Canada statistics. It will, no doubt, be used in partisan ways. It will be used to confuse the debate about the growing gap between rich and poor. It will be used to make it appear that Canada is becoming more equal, when the opposite is happening.